A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
